As Irish racing fans start looking forward to (hopefully) warm summer days and long evenings of the flat racing season, it’s worth remembering that the late spring and summer bring blockbuster action across the globe, not least America’s Triple Crown Series.
As ever, the action kicks off with the Kentucky Derby Festival and the Run for the Roses itself. The big race takes place on the 3rd of May, going off at about midnight Irish time. If it’s anything like last year’s thriller, racing fans are in for a treat. Here’s a quick primer for the 2025 race for Irish racing fans:
The Long Road to Churchill Downs
The Kentucky Derby’s qualifying system is really like no other horse race on the planet. There’s a long series of prep races, awarding points to runners and creating a league system to determine 18 qualifiers on what is termed the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” The other two places (see below) go to international horses. Burnham Square topped the points list in 2025, but, in truth, it’s not a great indicator of success in the Derby. Horses will do just enough to ensure their places in the race and then save their best for race day.
The Betting Market Leader
The clear favourite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby betting is Journalism, winner of the key prep race, the Santa Anita Derby. Ten Santa Anita Derby winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, so it’s always viewed as a credible signpost. That said, it’s been a while since a starting favourite has won the big one, so Journalism isn’t guaranteed anything. Yet, he’s a “stalker” – a horse that sits behind the leaders and pounces in the final stretch – and the Derby seems suited to his talent set.
The Close Contenders
Odds have meant very little in recent Kentucky Derby races, so we wouldn’t go by the betting markets alone. That said, there is plenty of buzz around Sovereignty, Luxor Café, Tappan Street, and Burnham Square. Sovereignty is perhaps the most interesting of the lot, having won well at Churchill Downs before, something that is lacking from the resume of the majority of the field. He’s a 7/1 shot, and he should start the race as the second favourite.
The Japanese Runners
The aforementioned Luxor Café is a 10/1 shot, and he has a lot of interest in him as a Japanese-trained horse. Japanese trainers and owners have really been targeting the Derby with more gusto with each passing year. Technically, there are two spots (of the 20) open to international horses, and Japan took them both this year and last time around. Luxor Café will look to go a step further than Forever Young, last year’s 3rd place finisher who came so close to becoming the first international horse to win the Derby. Admire Daytona is the other Japanese runner, and he has a fair chance of a place at 40/1.
One for the Underdogs?
There are at least half a dozen runners further down the card who could win the lot at odds of 20/1 or above. We’ve had 80/1 winners of this race in the recent past, and no favourite has won since 2018, so value punters can be ambitious. Final Gambit, American Promise, East Avenue and Tiztastic are among the names being mentioned for a place at least. It’s worth watching where the money goes in the coming days before making a value pick.
Wexford Weekly
This article was published by a member of the Wexford Weekly team.
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